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State economist offers gloomy preview of budget prediction

Photos and story by Dana Haynes

So I went to hear Tom Potiowsky, the , give a preview of the next economic forecast before the House Revenue Committee this morning. I wouldn’t say Professor Potiowsky committed ritual suicide at the meeting, but darn close.

It was gloomy news. The revenue continues to drop like an anvil in a Warner Bros. cartoon.

In December, Gov. Ted Kulongoski offered up his budget proposal, which increased funding for public K-12 schools and the Oregon University System, while cutting funding for community colleges. This, at a time the 17 independent community colleges are seeing 10 percent increases in enrollment, year over year.

Potiowsky’s preview of the late-February revenue forecast suggests that the governor’s proposal to “hold harmless” K-12 and the OUS schools is unlikely to survive.

As reported by Peter Wong at , the governor based his 2009-11 budget on a mid-November estimate of $16.1 billion in the general fund, which relies largely on income taxes and lottery proceeds. But Potiowsky says the latest economic trends suggest that lawmakers will have just $15.1 billion to play with for the next two years.

What does this mean for С��è��ý? Nobody knows. There’s a long way to go before the co-chairs of the Ways and Means Committee present their budget. And a long way to go before the 90 lawmakers adopt a budget.

Buckle up. It’s going to be an interesting ride.